In what may be their last home game after two long years in exile, the Reds are looking to make a statement while the Yellow and Blues want to feel a bit of hope before the international break. Here’s everything you need to know ahead of the EuroLeague Round 13 tip-off.

With the decisive vote approaching on bringing home games back to Israel, and just before the national team break, the Israeli representatives in the EuroLeague will host what is hopefully their final “home” game on foreign soil. On Tuesday (20:00), the sole EuroLeague leader (9–3), Hapoel Tel Aviv, will host Real Madrid (6–6, 10th place) in Bulgaria, in a fascinating clash between new money and old money. On Wednesday (19:00), Maccabi Tel Aviv — which dropped to 19th place after losing to Virtus (3–9) — will open the second day of Round 13 against Milan (6–6, 11th place). The Italians, who saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a home blowout against the Reds, will try to recover against the weaker team from the city.

A Move on the Crown

Things are looking very good on the red side of the city after the derby win and the victory over Milano last round. Blakeney, Bryant, and Motley are in peak form and leading Hapoel Tel Aviv — a team that owner Ofer Yannay has already called “the best team in the world outside the NBA.” Whether Yannay is right or not, the road to that unofficial title certainly runs through Europe’s biggest club, Real Madrid, an 11-time EuroLeague champion — which is, of course, 11 more than the Reds have.

The Blancos arrive only in 10th place and are experiencing an unstable start to the season under Italian coach Sergio Scariolo. They have the talented Lyles and Maledon, together with the experience of Campazzo, Tavares, Gaby Deck, and of course Sergio Llull, who refuses to vacate the Movistar Arena. But there is no clear hierarchy regarding who takes the ball — and the game — when the going gets tough. This has cost Real in close losses to weaker bottom-tier teams such as Virtus, Bayern Munich, and Maccabi Tel Aviv. It almost cost them again in a dramatic collapse against Žalgiris and Sylvain Francisco (go watch the highlights!).

Hapoel, on the other hand, has go-to guys at almost every position. Against Milano, it was Motley and Oturu from the center spot who combined for 37 points on 72% shooting. This week, Hapoel faces a far tougher challenge than the one it brushed aside this past weekend. Unlike the Italians, Real Madrid’s experienced squad is expected to arrive in Botevgrad determined to make it as difficult as possible for the Reds to enter their lethal rhythm — and as we saw with Fenerbahçe and Olympiacos, anything goes. Still, this year’s Real Madrid is a limited team, and away from the Movistar Arena it’s also a very vulnerable one, as their dismal road record (1–5) shows. Hapoel Tel Aviv can absolutely tighten its grip on the top of Europe and send a statement that will be heard even across the Atlantic, against the Queen of the EuroLeague.

Worth Checking

Hapoel Tel Aviv ranks first in the EuroLeague in three-point percentage (40.8%), 17 spots above Real Madrid (33.3%). They make nearly two more threes per game than Real, despite taking fewer attempts. The player most tempted to hoist threes is Mario Hezonja (5 attempts per game at 25%), but Maledon (30%), Llull (20%), and Deck (11%) are also players Itoudis would be happy to see shooting late in the clock. That said, Real almost completely abandoned the three-pointer against Žalgiris — just 2/9 — and still managed to win and score 100 points, showing they know how to compensate for their weaknesses in other ways, which will be discussed below.

Weak Spot

After the domination of Motley and Oturu against Milan’s soft interior, the Reds will face real size against Real Madrid. At center, Walter Tavares (2.20 m) and Alex Len (2.13 m) stand out, and Motley and Oturu will have a hard time moving Usman Garuba (115 kg, 2.03 m) on the boards. Lyles and Hezonja (2.06 m) also add size at forward. It’s no surprise that Real is the best rebounding team in the competition: second in total rebounds (38.3), first in defensive rebounds (26.4), and just as important — they allow the fewest rebounds to opponents (31.8). If Hapoel can lure Real into taking outside shots and battle for the rebounds that do fall, their chances improve of heading into the break with the EuroLeague crown still on their heads.

The Lowest Place in Tel Aviv

Maccabi Tel Aviv is a bottom-tier team. It has the roster of a bottom-tier team, the playing style, the energy, and even the ambitions of a bottom-tier team — namely to survive each week and inch closer to the end of this nightmarish European season. Anyone who refused to accept that until now likely understood it after the display of helplessness against Bologna. The Yellow and Blues slogged through the entire evening in apathy, trailing passively behind Virtus’ one-dimensional roster. With defensive miscommunications that allowed open threes and soft drives, reckless perimeter shots from their guards (Blatt, Dowtin, and Clark combined: 3/20), and especially with the lack of belief and energy of a team that plays as if it’s down 20 even when the deficit was only 10 — and even went down to 6 in the fourth quarter.

Maccabi looks like a herd without a shepherd: no floor general, no sideline leadership, and no guidance from the front office. It’s no wonder there’s no sense of purpose — other than, of course, trying to pad Jeff Dowtin Junior’s stat line on the way to some contract in the Far East. Milan, for its part, crashed back to earth after a strong stretch with a blowout that could have been even worse than 22 points against Hapoel Tel Aviv. Even though they got Zach LeDay and Shavon Shields back, both looked bad against the Reds. The only one who kept Milan in the game until the third quarter was the excellent Bolmaro, but from there he couldn’t save them from a long, painful garbage-time. Two former Maccabi players, Lorenzo Brown and Josh Nebo, are not expected to be available, but even without them Milan — now coached by Peppe Poeta after Ettore Messina’s resignation — is a clear favorite to send the Yellow and Blues into the break with yet another European loss.

Worth Checking

Marcio Santos (19 points, 3 threes) and Roman Sorkin (11 points, 6 assists) were perhaps the only ones (along with John DiBartolomeo) who looked good against Virtus, and together with Hoard, who recovered from the illness that sidelined him, they are expected to lead Maccabi against Milan’s front line — which posed no resistance against Hapoel’s big men. Totè is a bit passive, Ricci is not a center, and Bryant Dunston — born in 1986 — heads Armani’s frontcourt in the absence of Booker and Nebo. A dominant showing by Maccabi’s bigs in the paint could pave the way to a win.

Weak Spot

Even if Lonnie Walker was fully healthy, the Yellow and Blues backcourt this year is a shadow of what their fans expected from a six-time European champion. Tamir Blatt oscillates between present and absent both between games and within them. The basketball played by Clark and Dowtin (who now got injured and would be out for a month and a half) has sent many fans looking for the remote between the couch cushions, and John DiBartolomeo can no longer save the day. The matchup against them — Quinn Ellis, Armoni Brooks, and Leandro Bolmaro — will look to rebound after the home loss. If Maccabi defends them the way they defended Edwards (26 points in 24 minutes) and Morgan (17 points in 16 minutes), then I wouldn’t expect too much from what are (perhaps) the last 40 minutes at the “Aleksandar Nikolić” Arena in Belgrade.

Outside the Province

Two of Hapoel Tel Aviv’s three closest chasers heading into Round 13, Crvena Zvezda and Olympiacos, will meet on Wednesday (20:30) in Belgrade. Olympiacos cruised past Paris after falling into an early deficit, while Zvezda’s comeback effort fell short in a close battle with Valencia. The Serbians are getting Nwora back, and together with Miller-McIntyre and Moneke, they should give the star-studded Greek roster a serious fight in the battle for second place.